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In recent years, Spain has experienced highly volatile electricity prices, which were particularly affected in 2022 and 2023 by factors such as rising commodity prices, geopolitical uncertainties and the transition to renewable energies. While prices started 2022 with peaks of over EUR 200/MWh, 2023 saw a significant decline to an average of EUR 87.43/MWh. This represented a decrease of over 581% compared to the previous year.
Forecasts for 2024: Stability in sight
According to forecasts for 2024, the market is expected to stabilise further. The average values expected for the first few months are between EUR 60 and EUR 80/MWh, a clear sign of easing compared to previous years. However, this stabilisation will depend heavily on the availability of natural gas and the further development of renewable energies.
On 1 January 2024, a new formula for regulated electricity tariffs will come into force, affecting around 8.5 million households.
Instead of being completely linked to the wholesale market as before, the tariff will now be calculated based on 25% from future prices and 75% from daily prices. This step is intended to reduce dependence on daily market fluctuations and ensure greater price stability in the long term.
Comparison of years and outlook
Looking back, it is clear that 2022 was marked by extreme price jumps, while 2023 was notable for regulatory intervention and fluctuating prices. Now, 2024 offers the prospect of a calmer market phase, even if unpredictable factors such as geopolitical crises or natural disasters could continue to lead to price fluctuations.
In summaryElectricity prices in Spain appear to be stabilising in 2024, although external factors such as natural gas availability and the transition to renewable energies continue to have a significant impact. Consumers should closely monitor developments in order to optimise their energy costs.